Hopefully get back on track today, no tips on Wednesday (today when typing this) but day before we went 0/2 as Bolton failed to score against 20th placed Bury, who have conceded the 3rd most goals away from home this season. How Bolton are second in the league I dont know! Anyway, we are going to revisit the Europa League, lets hope its as good to us as it was last time.
1. Schalke vs Ajax BTTS (BOTD) 3pt/£3
2. O2.5 MG Double: Besiktas and Vigo 2pt/£2
3. Besiktas HT Result @ 3 1pt/£1
Points staked: 6/£6
1. Schalke vs Ajax BTTS (BOTD) @ 1.61:
This a game that I am backing purely because of the game situation. Ajax won the home leg 2-0 and so Schalke are going to need to push to score goals, however, Ajax will be looking to defend their lead, but of course make it stronger. Schalke this season have scored 73% of their goals at home, and they have also only failed to score in 3 Bundesliga home matches out of 15. In 5 of their last 6 home matches (ALL COMPETITIONS) they have had BTTS land. In 15 bundesliga home matches, they have conceded in 10 of them. Another reason I like this bet is that Schalke are in good home form, they have, in their last 5, won 3 and drawn 2.
Ajax travel to the Veltins Arena knowing that Schalke will be throwing everything at them. Schalke have only lost 4 times at home all season so they will know it will be a struggle. Ajax have had BTTS land 47% of their time, but I think they will find Schalke are a much stronger team than most of the teams in their league, the eredivisie and will concede here. A good stat to back BTTS here is also that Ajax have scored in 93% of their away matches. Ajax are a very strong team in the eredivisie but there is a massive difference in class here and they will not be used to different types of football.
The stakes of the game are as much as a reason to back BTTS here, a place in the semi final depends on it. Schalke will need to push and are on strong home form, and Ajax will need to try and defend their lead but counter and score when they can. BTTS here and my SP is 2-2.
2. O2.5 MG Double @ 2.47:
Besiktas vs Lyon:
Besiktas will be disappointed to have come away with a loss in the first leg of this tie, having been in the lead for 82 mins, but will look to come back with a strong home performance here with a fiery crowd behind them. Besiktas are undefeated at home this year, scoring a massive 32 goals in just 13 games in the process, they have also conceded 11 in those 13 home games so they are prone to conceding. At home this season, in those 13 games, they have had O2.5 MG land 10 times at 77%, and average 3.3 MG at home this season. They will be looking to over come their deficit and keep up their impressive home record with another win here.
I expect Lyon to be rattled in this fixture, in their last 2 games crowd trouble has seen a game be delayed and also more recently a game be abandoned, I think they will be worried about off the pitch issues and I think that they will struggle to cope with a crowd that is well against them. Lyon have had O2.5 MG land in 56% of their away games and average 2.7 MG away from home. They also concede the majority of goals in the first half of the game (65%) and Besiktas score 44% of their goals in the first half, so I expect them to come on strong against an unsettled Lyon side.
I think Besiktas will be too strong against Lyon, they havent had a game since the last leg 7 days ago and will be rusty. Besiktas need to continue their home record here and need to score at least 2 goals just to get in front, but Lyon are also on poor away form, winning just 1 of their last 5. I think Besiktas to be too strong here, and maybe even settle the overs theirselves. SP Besiktas 3-1.
Genk vs Celta Vigo:
This clash was full of goals last time round and had this bet land in the first 20 minutes of the game. Genk have had 53% of their home games have O2.5 MG. Genk have scored in every home game they have had this year, and I think they will score again here. They have scored 24 goals and conceded 16 at home this year and average 2.7 MG. They score an equal amount of goals in both the first half and second half so I think they will score both halves here.
Vigo, as mentioned before are a team I love to back for goals, as they score and concede. In 16 away matches this year, they have had this bet land 9/16 times at 53% and have had it land in 3/5 away matches and 4/5 overall matches. Overall they average O2.5 MG 65% of the time. They also have top scorer Aspas who is expected to play, I talked about him last time and I expect him to add to his tally of goals this year in what has been an impressive season. Vigo have only failed to score 31% of the time away from home but more interestingly have failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 games this season away from home, and they are playing a side who have scored in every home game. Vigo also conceded a massive 69% of their goals away from home in the second half, so dont be worried if theres only one goal at the break as they also average over 1 goal in the second half of games. The number of goals that they have scored/conceded in the second half of game is 36, the third highest in the league
The stakes are high here guys (not ours) and both teams will be going out there knowing they need to score. It is 3-2 on aggregate to Vigo, but they do concede many goals and Genk have scored in every home game this season. In both reality and statistically, this bet should land comfortably. My SP is Genk 3-1.
3. Besiktas HT Result @ 3.2:
In the 13 Besiktas home games, they havent been winning on only 4 occasions and have only had a 0-0 on 2 occasions at home at HT. Lyon will be nervous as Turkey isnt an easy place to go and play. I really expect Besiktas to start strong here, plus they have scored first in 11 home games (85%) and Lyon have conceded 50% of their goals in the first half. So in treacherous conditions, I dont expect them to have an easy half. As previously mentioned, Lyon are already on poor away form and all the stats point to a Besiktas win and I think they will have the lead by HT. HT/FT market is available at 4.33 but on the odd chance Lyon come back into it, Besiktas HT result is the bet that I am tipping.
HT SP Besiktas 2-0.
I am personally backing these bets and also the 3 results I mentioned at 24s, (Draw, Besiktas, Genk) if you want to follow you can but they are not tips and are just what I have pulled from my research.
That’s all I have today guys, hoping both tips win to get us back on track. Best of luck and remember the staking plan and remember to only bet what you can afford to lose.
Tom (ASB Tips)