On Friday, we had a good day, just the one bet, the BOTD, and it did land with Cork and Dundalk both getting the win. Lets hope for more luck with Saturday’s bets.
1. Millwall Win (BOTD) @ 1.7 (3pts/£3)
2. Bradford/Sheffield United WINS @ 3.40 (2pts/£2)
3. O1.5 MG Treble @ 2.07 (2pts/£2)
Points staked- 7pts/£7
1. Millwall Win (BOTD) @ 1.7
Millwall are a side who have had a good season, first they had FA Cup victories against Bournemouth and Watford, winning both games to nil and in the league they are 6th placed, taking the last play off spot. They are just one point above Southend in 7th so need to make sure they get the 3 points in their final home game of the season. As Millwall are at home, I will go through their stats, and they are impressive, playing 22, winning 13, drawing 6 and losing just 3. An even better stats is that they are unbeaten in the league in 2017 and unbeaten in 12 matches. At home, they really do well, scoring 34 in 22 at an average of 1.55 and conceding just 14 goals, an average of 0.64. In 2017, they have only conceded 2 goals at home! In the whole of the league, they have kept a clean sheet at home 50% of the time, the best record in the league.
Oxford are the opponents at the Den and they will not find this one easy, they were in some good form but are now struggling, they are without a win in their last 5 away games, drawing 2 and losing 3, only scoring 3 goals and conceding 6. Overall, they have only won 8/22 away games, drawing 5 and losing 9. They have scored 29 away from home and conceded 25.
In this game I expect Millwall to win as they are the superior team and are really good at home plus the play offs are the motivation here, as they could go up at the first time of asking if they make it, they also have Lee Gregory leading the line, who has scored 15 goals this season. They are playing an out of form Oxford side who havent won in 5 away games, SP Millwall 2-0.
2. Bradford and Sheffield United Win Double @ 3.40
Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon:
Bradford sit 5th in the league and seem pretty safe in the playoffs, sitting 5 points above Millwall. At home, they are unbeaten all season, playing 22 games, winning 12 and drawing 10. Although the draw number is pretty high, they havent lost which is the most important thing here. They have scored 33 goals and conceded only 17, which is less than one a game. To give you a form aspect of Bradford at home, they have won their last 4/5 home games, scoring 7 goals and conceding 3. Bradford overall have only failed to score 3 times out of 22 home games and have also kept a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Wimbledon their opponents will be proud of themselves this season, sitting 14th in the league and are guaranteed a spot in next years league one. Wimbledon away from home have played 22 and have only won 5, drawing 10 and losing 7. They have scored 18 in 22 and have conceded 27, which is respectable. However, they are without a win in their last 5 away matches and have also only won once in 2017 away from home. In their last 4 overall matches, they have failed to score and overall in their season they have failed to score away from home 50% of the time.
I think a low scoring game here, but a Bradford win, they are fantastic at home and playing an out of form Wimbledon side who have nothing to play for and are not scoring goals. SP Bradford 1-0.
MK Dons vs Sheffield United:
MK Dons sit 12th in the league, and are guaranteed a place in next years league one, but if they want to stay in it next year, they are going to have to improve their home form. Lets have a look why; MK Dons have the second worst home record in the league, gaining just 27 points from 22 matches, they have had a torrid time winning 7, drawing 6 and losing 9. They have scored 29 goals and conceded 34. They have won 3/5 home matches recently, but these were all against teams below them in the league, one of them being Coventry, who are relegated. MK Dons have failed to keep a clean sheet this season at home 82% of the time, one of the worst averages in the league. They are well below the league average for home wins (45%) as they sit on 32%, they are also well above the league average for defeats at home (27%) as they sit on a whopping 41%.
Now, the best team in the league, Sheffield United, they are the champions and have 94 points to their name. They have really taken a liking to this league and seem ready for the next challenge. As they are away I will only go through away stats, Sheffield United have played 22 matches away and have won 12 of them, drawing 7 and only losing 3. Their last loss away from home was in January and since then are undefeated in 8. Sheffield United have only failed to score 9% of the time away from home (2/22), also away from home they have scored 47 goals, an average of 2.14 goals scored away. One of the reasons Sheffield United are where they are is because of striker Billy Sharp, he has had a fantastic season back at his boyhood club and has scored 27 goals making him the top scorer in the division.
Even though they are the best team in the league, I do think they will concede as they have only kept a clean sheet 18% away from home, however I would not be worried about this at all. Sheffield United to win this, by a fair margin, they have the best away record in the league, they score plenty of goals and MK have the second worst home record in the league. SP: MK Dons 1 Sheffield United 3.
O1.5 MG Treble @ 2.07
Crawley vs Carlisle:
Crawley Overall 33/43 O1.5 and at home 15/21 O1.5
Carlisle Overall 38/43 O1.5 and away 19/21 O1.5
Luton vs Notts County:
Luton Overall 35/43 O1.5. Luton at home 18/22 O1.5
Notts County Overall 35/43 O1.5. Notts County away 19/21 O1.5
Woking vs York:
Woking Overall 37/43 O1.5 and at home 16/22 O1.5
York Overall 34/43 O1.5 and away 18/22 O1.5
If anyone wants a funbet acca then these are the teams I looked at but did not get into my win double; Portsmouth, Blackpool, Scunthorpe, Fleetwood and Dover.
That is all from me for Saturday, hopefully we can have another day in profit. Please remember to only stake what you can afford to lose and keep it fun.
Tom (ASB Tips)