A profitable day yesterday with win double and the O1.5 MG treble landing, shame about the BOTD but we go again. Onto Sunday’s tips,
1. Young Boys Match- BTTS and O2.5 MG BOTD @ 1.85 3pts/£3
2. AC Milan and Copenhagen Win Double @ 2.27 2.5pts/£2.50
3. O2.5 MG Treble @ 3.96 1.5pts/£1.50
Points staked 7pts/£7
Young Boys vs Lugano- O2.5 MG and BTTS @ 1.85 (BOTD)
Young Boys have been on really good home form, playing 14 matches, winning 10, drawing 2 and losing 2. They have scored a massive 43 goals in these 14 games, averaging over 3 goals scored per home game and they have also conceded 20. They have scored in 93% of their home matches. Amazingly, YB have had 13/14 home games land O2.5 goals and have also had BTTS in 11/14 games (79%) and also in 4/5. for such a top side, they do concede, they have conceded in 86% of their home games and also at least in their last 7. Just to give you a form aspect and a more recent statistic, in 5 home games, they have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1, scoring 11 and conceding 8.
Lugano away have played 14 games, scored 17 and conceded 33, so they concede Over 2 goals per away match on average. They have had 9/14 away games land O2.5 goals and have also had BTTS land in 9/14 games. Lugano have also scored in 86% of their away games and I fully expect them to get one here, especially with the above stats of Young Boys. To give you some form, they have had O2.5 land in 3 of their last 5 games and had BTTS land in 3 of their last games also.
With these stats, I think this looks a really good bet. With YB home record with scoring goals and also conceding, I think Lugano will get at least the one here and then YB to settle the bet. My SP is Young Boys 3 Lugano 1. Another bet that I really like here which was really close to being my BOTD was Young Boys Result and O1.5 MG @ 1.72.
Win Double @ 2.27
AC Milan vs Empoli
AC Milan are 4th in the league, at home this season they have the 4th best record in the league. They have played 16, Won 11, drew 3 and lost just 2. They have scored 27 goals and conceding 16. They have only failed to score once at home in 2017 and 13% in the whole season they have also only conceded 5 goals at home in 2017, altogether in the season they have kept a clean sheet 44% of the time so they have had a good year at the San Siro. In more recent times they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, the 4 wins all came most recently scorelines of 2-1, 3-1, 1-0 and 4-0, they have the second best home form in the league at this moment.
Empoli have one of the worst away records in the league, playing 16 games, winning just 2, drawing 4 and losing 10. They have scored only 8 goals and conceded 26. They have failed to score 75% of the time away from the home, In Empoli’s last 5 away matches, they have lost 4 of them, losing 2-0, 4-0, 2-0 and 2-0 they are not in good form and I do not expect them to put up a challenge for Milan here, especially as they really struggle to score and have conceded in their last 11 matches. My SP is Milan 3-0.
Copenhagen vs Midtjylland
Copenhagen are on really strong form, in 26 overall matches this year they are unbeaten, winning 19 and drawing 7. In 13 home matches this season, they have won 11 and drawn 2, they have scored 33 matches, averaging 2.53 scored per home game, they have only conceded a stunning 2 goals at home this season, averaging only 0.15 goals conceded per home game. I could be wrong but I think they have the best home defence in Europe? They have scored in every single home game and kept a clean sheet in 11/13 games (75%). Plus, they are unbeaten at home in the league in 3 years.
Midtjylland, really not too much to say about them but they sit 4th in the league, 29 points behind leaders Copenhagen. In 26 matches, they have won 10, drew 8 and lost 8, scoring 44 goals and conceding 29. In 13 away matches, they have won 5, drew 3 and lost 5, scoring 20 and conceding 13. In their last 5 away matches, they have lost 3 of them. Midtjylland do not have a good record against Copenhagen, they have lost all 4 of their recent matches playing them, conceding 12 goals against Copenhagen. My SP for this one is Copenhagen 3-1.
O2.5 MG Treble:
Udinese vs Cagliari:
Overall: Udinese 20/32 and 11/16 Home games.
Form: All last 5 matches O2.5 MG
Overall: Cagliari 21/32 and 8/16 away games
Form: Last 3 matches had O2.5
Match Average: 3.3
Chievo vs Torino:
Overall: Chievo 17/32 and 9/16 home games.
Form; Last 4/5 Matches had O2.5
Match Average: 2.6
Overall: Torino overall 22/32 and 10/16 away games.
Form: Last 4/5 Matches had O2.5
Match Average: 3.5
Vitesse vs Feyenoord:
Overall: Vitesse 16/31 and 10/16 home games.
Form: Last 3/5 Home matches had O2.5
Match Average: 2.7
Overall Feyenoord 18/31 and away 7/15 away games.
Form: Last 3/5 away games O2.5
Match Average: 3.3
That is all for Sunday’s tips, back responsibly and I hoped these helped you choose your selections.
Tom (ASB Tips)