Really good day yesterday, we landed both of tips; BOTD @ 1.8 and the O2.5 MG double landed @ 2.59. Just the one tip today, there’s a lot of games but I only tip when I am 10/10 confident so this is my only pick. Please note this is not the BOTD, there is not one of those today.
Atletico Bilbao and Anderlecht Win @ 2.02 (2pt/£2)
Bilbao vs Betis
Bilbao are 7th in the league and will be looking to go 6th with a win tonight. At home they have played 17 and their record is won 12, drew 3 and lost just 2 games. At home they have scored 33 goals, so just below the 2 on average mark. They have conceded 18 which is a tad over 1 for the goals conceded phg. To give a form aspect, they have won 6 of their last 7, their only loss being to Real Madrid, which can be forgiven. Their most recent victory was a crushing 5-1 victory over Las Palmas. Bilbao are a side that are definitely better at home than on their travels, as their record shows, also, they have earned 72% of their points at home, which is a staggering percentage. However, they have also conceded in 76% of their home matches, so do not be surprised if BTTS lands here.
Betis are the opponents at the San Mames stadium and are looking to improve on their measly 15th position in the league. Away from home they are a poor side, playing 16 and their record is not pretty, winning 4, drawing 1 and losing 11. They have scored only 16 goals and conceded 32, so this is an average of 2 conceded pag. They have only kept a cleansheet 6% of the time away from home, showing they do leak goals and struggled to keep clean sheets away from home. For a form aspect, they have lost 3 of their last 5 and conceded 9 in those 5. However, they have scored in their last 7 away matches, plus they have also lost 69% of their away games.
In this one I definitely think goals will occur, I really like BTTS/Overs but I have gone for what I think is a safer option, the stats do say BTTS should occur but this doesnt always happen. My SP is Bilbao 4-1. This isnt the tip but if you wanted something riskier than Bilbao and BTTS is a stat backed bet too, Bilbao have a high BTTS/Win rate at home (9/17) so 9/12 wins have been BTTS win and Betis away have lost 6/16 away games BTTS, so 6/11 losses have been BTTS. I am personally backing this bet, but it is NOT the tip, the tip is simply a Bilbao win.
Anderlecht vs Charleroi
Anderlecht have one of the best home records in this league, playing 15, winning 10, drawing 4 and losing just 1 game. They have scored 38 goals at home at an average of 2.6 and conceded just 11 goals. They are undefeated at home since the 25th September, so an incredible run. They have kept a clean sheet 53% of the time at home and only failed to score 13% of the time. Form wise, they have won 4/5 at home and in those 5 only conceded 3 goals, and they were in 2 games. This shows they are a very strong team at home and also have a tightship defence.
Charleroi have played 15 away games and only won 3 games ( 20%) and they have drew 5 and lost 7. They have scored 13 away and conceded 15, so a team that doesnt score goals, but doesnt leak them either. Their points average away from home is 0.87, well below the league average of 1.13 They have failed to score 40% of the time away and kept a clean sheet 33% of the time. Charleroi are a much stronger side at home, and poor away so they should not gain any points here.
I think this one will be a low scoring match, but an Anderlecht win, they are the superior side here and all the stats suggest backing them for a win, although looking at other stats I am personally backing HT Draw/ FT Anderlecht. Just because I think Charleroi will be solid in the first half, they have only gone into HT losing 2/30 games but falter in the second, as they do concede the majority of their goals in the second half, conceding just 4 in the first half and 11 in the second. Although this is just a personal bet, the tip is just an Anderlecht win as this is safer. My SP for this one is Anderlecht 1-0.
That is all for today, please bet responsibly and remember the staking plan.
Tom (ASB Tips)