Really good day yesterday both on and off the bets, on the betting front we won both tips, BOTD won at 1.73 to win us our 4th BOTD in a row and the value single landed too at 2.1. Away from the bets, I gained over 80+ followers and made it way over the 300 mark, something I did not think I would have achieved in just 2 weeks of tipping, a huge thank you to all and a shoutout to @JaguarFootyTips who gave me a #ff and I think a lot of followers came from his page, if you are reading this and dont follow him, make sure you do, you will not regret it. Onto today’s tips:
1. Aldershot WIN @ 1.8 (BOTD) (3pts/£3) 12:15 KO
2. Win Double @ 2.8 (1.5pts/£1.50)
3. O1.5 MG Treble @ 2.23 (2pts/£2) 12:15 KO
Points Staked: 6.5/£6.50
Aldershot WIN @ 1.8
Aldershot are extremely close to securing a play off spot and a win would definitely see them favourites, they sit 5th in the league and Dover are just only 3pts behind, but have a tough game against Barrow (7th), so Aldershot need to take advantage of what could be a Dover slip up.
Aldershot at home this season have been an extremely solid side, they have played 22 games and have won 14, drawn 5 and only lost 3. In those games, they have scored a respectable 36 goals and only conceded 13 goals, at an average 0.59 a game, this corresponds with a really good clean sheet record at home of 64%. Aldershot are unbeaten at home since the 22nd November, so they are on a really good home run, they are also on a good run overall, in their last 8, they have won 6 and drawn 2 and havent been beaten in 2017.
Braintree are the opponents and have far less impressive stats, they sit deep in trouble in the relegation zone and are looking like going down. In 22 away matches, they have won 7, drawn 5 and lost 10. They have scored 28 goals away from home and conceded 38. They have only kept a clean sheet 27% of the time and really struggle away from home, for a form away aspect, they have lost their last 3 games, 3-1, 3-0 and 1-0, so only scoring 1 goal in 3 matches away from home is seriously showing concern as to finding the net and not being able to keep a clean sheet. They have also only won twice in their last 9 away games, and have conceded more than once on 5 occasions. Form overall is bad for Braintree also, playing 5, winning 1 and losing 4. Scoring 4, which is respectable but conceding 10.
So its 5th vs 22nd, 31 points between them, the glory hunters vs the escapees. I think a tight game here, and only an odd goal between them but with Aldershots incredible form both home and overall and Braintree’s poor away and overall form, I cannot see anything but an Aldershot win, even with the stakes being so high for both teams, Aldershot are the closest they have been to claiming an hour of a football league side, so this motivation should give them the thrive to win. My SP here is Aldershot 2-1.
Win Double- Brighton and Wycombe @ 2.8
Brighton vs Bristol City:
Brighton have been a fantastic outfit this year and have been promoted to the PL, they will be looking for a win here to be crowned champions. At home this year they have played 22, won 17, drew 3 and lost 2. This is the best record in the league. They have scored 46 at an average of 2.09 and conceded only 13 at an average of 0.59. Brighton have only failed to score once all year and also have a really strong clean sheet percentage of 55%. Brighton have won their last 4 home games and only conceded two goals. Scorelines of 2-1, 3-1, 1-0 and 3-0.
Bristol City are looking like they could be safe, only 4 points clear of the relegation zone in 17th but the fixtures of other teams are in their favour. Away from home this year they have played 22, won 3, drew 5 and lost 14. The 3rd worst record in the league. They have scored 26 goals and conceded 40. In their last 5 away games they have lost 3 of them, in those 3 losses they conceded 9 goals and scored 0. They have failed to score in 32% of their away games and only kept a clean sheet in 9% of them. City have only gained 29% of their points away from home showing they are a poor outfit, and with Brighton being technically the best team in the league, I expect Brighton to win this to nil, especially as the motivation of being crowned champions is on the agenda. My SP is Brighton 2-0.
Morecambe vs Wycombe:
Morecambe have had a poor season and sit 18th in the league. At home, they have the second worst record in the league playing 22, winning 6, drawing 3 and losing 13. They have scored 23 at an average of just over 1 a game and conceded 37 at and average of 1.68 conceded. Morecambe are a team who definitely struggle at home more than they do away as the following stats will show, they have conceded 66% of their goals at home, they have lost 75% of their home matches, they are winless in their last 6 home matches and have failed to keep a clean sheet 88% of the time, so as you can see, rather appalling stats, no offence to any Morecambe fans.
Opponents Wycombe are in a much better position, they are 9th in the league and are only 1 point behind the play off spots, so a win here, and if other results go their way will see them in the play offs. Wycombe have played 22 away games, winning 8, drawing 5 and losing 9, they have scored 28 away and conceded 31. Although the stats arent massively standing out, it is their form that has drawn me to this bet. In their last 5 matches they are unbeaten and won all their last 4, and have scored atleast 2 goals on all 4 occassions, and only conceded once. So this form against Morecambe’s shocking home form really points to a Wycombe win. My SP is Wycombe 1-0.
O1.5 MG Fourfold @ 2.23
Dagenham and Redbridge vs Woking:
Overall: D&R 34/45 O1.5 and 17/22 at home
Match Average: 2.9
Overall: Woking 38/45 and 21/22 away
Match Average: 3.7
Barrow vs Dover:
Overall: Barrow 35/45 O1.5 and 17/22 home
Match Average: 2.7
Overall: Dover 37/45 O1.5 and away 16/22
Match Average: 3.2
Plymouth vs Crewe
Overall: Plymouth 33/44 O1.5 and 18/22 home
Match Average: 3
Overall: Crewe 37/44 O1.5 and 19/22 away
Match Average: 3
Leyton Orient vs Colchester
Overall: LO 35/44 O1.5 and 15/22 home
Match Average: 2.8
Overall: Colchester 37/44 O1.5 and 18/22 away
Match Average: 2.7
That is all today, I hope for another successful day, please remember the staking plan and bet responsibly.
Tom (ASB Tips)